The Science of the Bad Boy Quadrilogy
Steve Challis
The Science of the Bad Boy Quadrilogy
By Steve Challis
Copyright 2011 Steve Challis
ISBN 978-0-9871585-7-4
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Index
Also published by Steve Challis
Also published by Steve Challis at Smashwords
A Bad Boy by Steve Challis
Ali the Peacemaker by Steve Challis
ExtraSolar Menace by Steve Challis
The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence by Steve Challis
The Bad Boy Quadrilogy by Steve Challis
War and Space by Steve Challis
The Old Firm by Richard F. Challis
Time and Chance by Richard F. Challis
When Angels Travel by Richard F. Challis
The Science of the Bad Boy Quadrilogy
The Bad Boy Quadrilogy is the first 4 books of the Bad Boy Cycle. This short book is the fifth one. The sixth book of the cycle is ‘War and Space’.
The Bad Boy Quadrilogy covers the period from 1995 to 2214. Since this is mostly in the future, it is reasonable to expect new inventions and that as the series progresses in time that these will become more difficult to predict.
It is not clear if major theories generally accepted today will be replaced or modified in a significant way, but my guess is that some of these theories will, and in the Quadrilogy this happens. I am not going to attempt to explain every bit of science that is in the books, but will concentrate on some of the more controversial ones.
Global Warming
It is not universally accepted that Global Warming is happening. There are even scientists predicting an imminent ice age.
One thing I object to is statements like ‘The science of Global Warming is settled’. Some parts of the science are mostly accepted as being correct, but their importance is widely argued about.
New data is coming in all the time and any serious climate scientist will take note of the new data, and if necessary modify their ideas and theories. Similarly the political parties which have adopted a stance on Global Warming as part of their political dogma worry me. Of course parties need policies, but these also need to be based on the science and continuing observations.
I was sceptical about Global Warming 25 years ago, but my ideas have gradually changed, both as more data came in, and as I studied the subject more.
The ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC) has a very difficult job and produces reports that are widely criticised by both sides of the climate debate.
The climate change sceptics and the climate change deniers suggest that the conclusions are wrong and that either the effects are exaggerated, or that they are non existent. On the other hand, other scientists, like Professor Tim Flannery (in his book The Weather Makers) suggest that the conclusions are very conservative, and the effect of climate change will be greater than the IPCC reports claim.
Humans have a tendency to extrapolate from current trends. This particularly applies when you get a committee. A prime example of this is in economics. The Reserve Bank of Australia is notoriously slow in reacting to changes in the economic climate. Committees are particularly poor at forecasting when there is a change other than an extension of existing trends.
The Case for an Imminent Ice Age
There have been cycles of warmer periods between the cold ones where glaciers cover much of the land. Our present warm period has lasted about 13,000 years. This is longer than most and the cyclic nature of the climate implies that it will get cold quickly. This is a greatly simplified version of one argument.
Another argument is based on Sun spot activity. It has been pointed out that in the ‘Little Ice Age’ which lasted until about 1850, Sun spot activity was low. When there are not many Sun Spots, the Sun warms the Earth less. This seems strange since Sun spots are cooler than the rest of the Sun. However, it appears to be true.
This is only one of the explanations for the several hundred years of cold conditions. There is also a strong correlation with Carbon Dioxide (C02) concentration. This may explain some of the temperature variation in this period.
In the article ‘Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh’ in The Australian of April 23, 2008 the very low Sun spot activity in 2007 was mentioned as being a cause of temperature drop.
The problem with that argument is that a temporary drop in Sun spot activity can mask the longer term effects of greenhouse gas concentration increases. When the Sun’s activity increases again (as it has done) the effects of the greenhouse gasses will increase again, and we will have lost time in trying to do something constructive about climate change. Despite the things said in the article, the warmest decade on record was from 2000 to 2009. Of course the writer did not know what would happen after he wrote the article, but it is quite different from his implied prediction.
Iceball to Hothouse
In my book ‘A Bad Boy’, the Earth warms up faster than predicted by climate scientists. This is based on an interpretation of geological evidence. There is good evidence that at some period(s) in the Earth’s geological history the oceans were frozen from pole to pole. That is, even at the equator they were frozen. After that the Earth warmed up and conditions much warmer than today prevailed, with no permanent ice in the world, not even at the poles.
This change from an ice ball to a hothouse is widely accepted. What is much more arguable is the exact reason for the change and how long it took. One interpretation of the evidence suggests that some instability developed in the planet wide ice sheet and a massive release of Methane (CH4) occurred. There is an interpretation of the evidence that the change from the coldest period of the Earth’s history to one of the hottest took place in only 100 years. This is a much faster rate of warming and ice melting than is suggested even in my book. This interpretation of how long the change took is not generally accepted, but is certainly not one I made up myself.
In ‘The Bad Boy’ a catastrophically increased rate of Methane release occurred starting in 2017, leading to increased temperatures from 2020. Interestingly, since I wrote the previous sentence, there has been a prediction of all the Ice in the Arctic Ocean will disappear by 2016, "plus or minus three years". (Not the Greenland icefield which is land ice, and should certainly last longer.) This is a small example of what I said about the science being not settled.
It is not known how much methane hydrate there is in the world, but most of it is locked up in places where it is only likely to break down slowly. However, in the Arctic, both the Arctic tundra and the Arctic Ocean there are gigantic reserves (perhaps about 1.4 trillion tonnes although estimates vary) of methane hydrates that could release their Methane quickly. There is evidence that this had started to happen as early as 2008, although not to a disastrous extent.
The Methane was probably mainly formed by decay of a massive growth of Azolla in the Arctic regions. This little fern took so much C02 from the atmosphere that the Earth became much colder and the poles were covered in ice. The sudden increase in temperature by a rapid release of Methane could be called a Methane Gun because of the potentially very rapid (in geological terms) effect.
Although I am not suggesting that a rise in temperature a fast as happens in my book is likely I consider that it is within the range of possibility. People who are sceptical about the accuracy of the climate prediction models should not assume that they are over estimating the effects of global warming. Based on the way Humans normally operate I think they are much more likely to be conservative and global warming will be greater than most models predict.
I suggest that my book definitely does not take the worst possible scenario. For example, for a much worse scenario, see Professor Frank Fenner’s predictions.
Human/Bonobo Hybrids
This possibility was raised in a hypothetical way in ‘A Bad Boy’, and becomes more important in the other three books of the Quadrilogy.
The Bonobo, Pan paniscus, is the smallest of the great apes, and along with the Chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes, is the closest relative to Human beings. This closeness raises the possibility of interbreeding between Humans and Bonobos. In ‘A Bad Boy’ this was discussed, but no conclusion was drawn although different characters had their own ideas on the subject.
Based on other related species that can, at least on very rare occasions, produce fertile babies, a Human/Bonobo Hybrid cannot be totally ruled out. An experiment that fails to produce offspring does not prove that it would never be possible under other conditions, or with other pairs of potential parents. Remember that the Human species in particular is quite variable. There are breeds of cat available today that include ancestors of different species within the cat family, not always in the same genus.
Concentration of Copper by Plants
In ‘A Bad Boy’, Angie Jones does a PhD thesis on concentrating Copper from tailings from mines by growing plants on the tailings, burning the plants and extracting copper from the ash of the plants. It is correct that some plants including Subterranean Clover (Trifolium subterraneum L.) can concentrate copper from soil high in copper and that when they are burned their ash appears to be green rather than the normal ash colour. Angie’s project is a realistic one for a PhD student, although the amount of work could actually provide projects for several students.
Oil from Algae
In ‘A Bad Boy’, Andy starts to experimentally produce Oil and other things from Algae. It is well established that this is possible and that the potential yields far exceed those of any land plant. Fairly simple calculations show that only a small proportion of the land of Australia’s deserts would be needed to produce enough oil for the entire world. Of course there are several other countries in the same position, including the United States of America and Saudi Arabia. What is less certain is the cost of doing this. Developing commercially viable ways of producing oil from algae was partly what Andy the businessman was working on.
Geothermal Power
Another pet project of Andy the businessman was the rapid development of geothermal power in Australia. On a small scale, power is already being produced. Calculations suggest that it will be one of the cheapest types of power to produce, and it can be done 24 hours a day. The reserves of hot rocks in Australia are sufficient for hundreds of thousands of years. Although Andy only did this in Australia, several other countries are in the same position of having hot rock reserves sufficient for hundreds of thousands of years. This includes the United States of America.
Launching Spacecraft
Some places on the Earth require much less energy to get into orbit from than others. The closer to the equator you are, the less power you need. This is because of the centrifugal ‘force’ caused by the rotation of the Earth. Historically, politics has also been important in choosing the site of launching site. Russian launch sites are in Russia while American ones are in America. America has a small advantage because parts of it are closer to the equator than anywhere in Russia.
You also gain if your launch site is closer to outer space; that is if the altitude of the launch site is higher. So the best place to launch would be a high mountain on the equator. The obvious one to use is Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa. Politically there would be complications, but in ‘Ali the Peacemaker’ this site is suggested for earth’s new spaceport.
Computer Program Reliability
The first computer in the recognisably modern sense I used was in 1984. This was one of the first Macintoshes. It had 16 kilobytes of Random Access Memory (RAM) and no hard disc drive (It had a floppy disc drive and a disc had to be inserted each start up). This specifications make it sound very primitive even compared with even the 5 year old computer I am on at the moment. Nevertheless, it enabled us to do word processing, spread sheet calculations, statistics, and even supported a quite good speech program.
Of course there were things it could not do like graphics, except very simple ones. It was also not connected to the internet which did not even exist. It could communicate with other computers via modem, so messages of the email type could be sent.
The programs on a modern computer doing the same things as this computer did are enormously more complicated. As the capabilities of computers have increased, programmers no longer have the same constraints. Unfortunately as computers have become more complicated, their reliability has not necessarily increased to the same extent.
There have been large scale computer failures of government and large corporations which sometimes take a long time to fix, despite the huge amount of resources the organisations are putting into them. The problem is frequently simply that no one understands enough of the program to find where the errors are.
In the books, this increasingly happens, even to the extent that computer controlled spaceships become dangerous to use without a skilled pilot to correct the errors.
This situation in my books continued until a person of exceptional ability started from scratch and writes programs that are reliable.
Faster than Light Travel
A common interpretation of Einstein’s theories of Relativity is that it is impossible to travel faster than light. However, even the people who accept that his Relativity theories are completely correct do not all have this exact interpretation. Some interpret the theories as meaning that it is theoretically impossible to accelerate up to the speed of light. The tachyon is a postulated particle that can only travel faster than light. The relativity theories can be interpreted as suggesting that these particles cannot be decelerated down to the speed of light. This postulated particle raises the question of whether the speed of light can be bypassed.
Different science fiction authors have come up with different ways of their travellers going faster than light. Sometimes, as with me, it is using an incomplete theory based on facts. Frequently the authors simply use fancy sounding words like ‘hyperspace’ and ‘warp speed’ without explaining them much, although both these terms do have some sort of hypothetical basis.
Of course, no one has worked out, and successfully tested, a complete theory that will allow the speed of light to be bypassed. If had one, I would publish it and have good hopes of winning a Nobel Prize. In ‘ExtraSolar Menace’ near the end of the book Pete of the Apes puts forward some odd facts and observations. These are all correct.
Here is an abridged extract from the book including one of these facts:
Theory
Pete said to Karl:
“Have you worked out a way of travelling faster than light yet?”
“No, no one has done this.”
Pete said:
“Of course, you know it’s impossible?”
Karl smiled:
“Yes, of course.”
“Consider, as a thought experiment; you have a long thin spaceship tapering to a point at each end, and you accelerate, approaching the speed of light. What would happen to its mass and its shape, from the point of view of observers not on the ship?”
Karl answered:
“As the speed approached the speed of light, the mass would approach infinity, and the Lorenz-Fitzgerald contraction would mean the length would approach zero. You could reach a point where the spaceship would be a ‘black hole’ in the sense that no information could get out, but inside the ship conditions would seem normal.”
Pete asked:
“And at what speed would it happen?”
John guessed:
“At the speed of light?”
Karl said:
“No, it would happen before that. The speed it happened at would not be theoretically impossible to reach, using Einstein’s relativity equations. The theoretical concepts concerning ‘black holes’ worked out by Hawkins and others suggest the ‘black hole’ so created would be extremely unstable. The implications of this will have to be worked out mathematically. They may not be simple.”
Pete continued:
“We will have to do this later. The point is; if there is a theoretical way of avoiding the speed of light, even if it is completely impractical to do, it is reasonable to guess there are other ways. The mathematics may well suggest ways of doing it.
In this extract, Pete is ‘Pete of the Apes’, and has just returned with hundreds of his ape friends after being away from civilization in the jungle for 12 years; Karl in his adult son. John is a former homicidal megalomaniac who has been cured and is using the name ‘John Smith’ to avoid damaging the memory of his illustrious family including his twice canonized Great Grandfather.
The first manned interstellar ship in the books ship was roughly spherical, with a double hull. The double hull feature was for safety and it was found to be unnecessary. Although in the book ‘War and Space’ it did turn out to be useful.
Later ships did not all have double hulls and were not all the same shape.
As Karl says the conditions inside the ship appear to be normal.
In my book, they energise the hull in a way that makes the ship behave like a small black hole from the point of view of the rest of the universe. This only works with a high mass within the correct range. Although the point is not specifically made in the book, the average density of the ship is also important.
Unfortunately I have not worked out the exact way of energising the ship’s hull to make it behave like a black hole from the point of view of the rest of the universe, so I am not likely to be winning any Nobel Prizes. Another problem is that any theory is only a scientific one if there is a method of testing it. In the book the only way they could be sure it would work was to build a giant spaceship and go out and try it. This is well beyond what we can do at present although it does not require inventions that violate any current theories.
Apart from different interpretations of Einstein’s Relativity theories, not all astrophysicists accept that the thories are totally correct.
The question still remains whether faster than light travel is science fiction, or science fantasy. It was my intention to write fiction well based in science, not fantasy where it is possible to make up whatever you want. Whether of not I have succeeded it is better for other people to judge.
Parallel Universes
The existence of parallel universes has been very seriously suggested. There are several things that suggest their possibility. Although Professor Hawkins in 2004 worked out that one of the types of other universe (Which he had suggested himself) would not happen, there are at least 2 other major ways they could exist.
On the uncertainty principle, in some situations it is not fixed what a sub atomic particle will do. That is, there is more than one thing it can do. Many physicists think that in these situations the particle does all possible things.
It has been seriously suggested that every time a particle makes such a ‘decision’ the universe splits. There are a lot of subatomic particles in the universe so this would suggest that a totally enormous number of universes are being formed every second. The number would not actually be infinite in the mathematical sense, but it would be so gigantic that for non-mathematicians it might as well be infinite. This pseudo-infinite number of universes is not the only possibility. A different one is explored in the fourth book of the Quadrilogy.
Comets
Are Comets Made of Antimatter?
If you look on the internet you will find many websites saying that comets are made of antimatter. Some of these sites have what sounds like good evidence to back up the basic idea. These sites have mathematical formulae, and the things you would expect from serious scientific sites.
I would note that one of the things said in several of these sites is that the body of the comets appears to be black. I cannot see the logic of this. Antimatter should reflect light in the same way as normal matter. Whether comets are made of matter or antimatter, if they appear black, it presumably simply means their surface in covered with black material, perhaps something like tar. I do not consider the colour of comets to be evidence one way or the other.
Most sites about comets say they are made of ordinary matter.
There are a lot of comets each year, and if you consider the billions of years that our Solar System has existed, there have been many collisions with planets.
If an antimatter comet of even moderate size hits a planet, the explosion from the annihilation of the comet and an equal amount of matter would be enough to blow the planet apart. The mere fact that we have a reasonable number of planets is good evidence to me that comets are not made of antimatter.
Mathematical explanation of the last paragraph
The explosive power of thermonuclear weapons is measured in Megatons (Millions of tons of TNT). One Megaton is the equivalent of the annihilation of 46.5 grams of mass. A moderate sized comet has a mass of about 100,000,000,000,000 Kilograms. If an antimatter comet this size hit a planet, this mass as well as the same mass of normal matter would be annihilated, becoming energy.
So 200,000,000,000,000 Kilograms of mass would be changed to energy. There are 1000 grams in a Kilogram, so 200,000,000,000,000,000 grams of mass would become a 4,297,323,135,755,260 Megaton explosion. This number is a little too big to easily comprehend, but it would certainly destroy a planet.
Although I personally am convinced that the comets we can see are not made of Antimatter, we have no way of being completely sure that no antimatter comets exist in other star systems. If a comet came into the Solar System from another part of the Milky Way (an extrasolar comet), or perhaps from the Andromeda Galaxy (an extragalactic comet), my calculations prove nothing about whether it will be made of matter or antimatter. However, we have no reason to expect a visit from an antimatter comet.
What Are Comets Made of
Comets that we are familiar with are made of normal matter, not antimatter.
Dirty Snowballs
Carl Sagan once described comets as dirty snowballs. I do not know if this was original when he first said this, but it is a quite good description. Comets have a lot of water ice, together with things like Methane and other hydrocarbons. They also have varying amounts of rock.
As the comet gets closer to the Sun, the outer layers will warm up, and particles from the Sun also act on the Comet, causing some of the comet to be removed from the comet nucleus, becoming the tail of the comet.
Surface
The matter that is left after each passage near the sun will contain, near the surface of the comet, more of the heavier components of the comet, and less of the lighter ones. This means that the comet will have a skin of things like the heavier hydrocarbons.
This is a bit like tar pits where oil has lost its more volatile components leaving the heavier ones which make up tar.
Like tar, the surface skin of comets tends to be black, reflecting very little light.
Inside
Comets contain all the things that other astronomical bodies do. This will include things like Ammonia as well as varying amounts of all the elements. This means that all the elements necessary for life will be found in comets.
Nearly all scientists would say that it is too cold inside a comet to support active life, but the possibility of life in a dormant form is more difficult to dismiss.
Even if comets contain no actual life, they certainly supply to all the planets the chemical elements necessary to support life.
Nanomachines
Nanomachines are artificial entities of the size of molecules. It is expected that these will become possible to build sometime this century. Many science fiction authors have included these molecular machines in their stories. Some authors like Ben Bova have had self-replicating nanomachines. Personally I think that these would be too dangerous to use, but ones that are not self replicating have considerable potential. Nanomachines are used in the fourth book of my Quadrilogy.
Symbiosis
When two or more organisms live together and both benefit it is called symbiosis. Many animals have microorganisms living inside them which help the animal in various ways while getting the food and a place to live and reproduce. Ruminants like cattle have a great many different types of microorganism inside them, and with their method of digestion the cattle are almost totally dependant on these organisms.
Humans also have trillions of microorganisms living inside them. Many of these are beneficial. However, it is my guess that none of these microorganisms are actually essential, and in my book, both species in the crew of the InterStellar exploration ships had all the microorganisms in and on them destroyed by nanomachines whenever there was a danger of contaminating a planet. They also kept these machines inside them to prevent any alien diseases attacking them.
Unknown Civilizations?
The oldest definitely dated fossils which were certainly Homo sapiens have been found in Ethiopia in volcanic sediment which allowed them to be reliably dated as between 154,000 and 160,000 years old. The fossils have been carefully examined and it has been determined that the brain size is not within the normal range of modern human brains. They are bigger. However, apart from the bigger brains these people had all the important distinguishing characteristics of modern Humans.
Because of the bigger brains and some other minor differences they have been put into a different subspecies, Homo sapiens idaltu. But these people were almost certainly our main ancestors. DNA analysis of modern Humans has determined that we also have a very small percentage of two other human subspecies, including Homo sapiens neanderthalensis. In appearance however, we are almost identical with Homo sapiens idaltu. If one of these people were alive today and dressed in the latest fashion they could pass for one of us, although we might wonder which of the many races of Homo sapiens sapiens they belonged to.
Humans identical with or very similar to modern Humans have been around for about 160,000 years. In that time there have been several major changes in climate. If there had been major civilizations before our present warm period (13,000 years) we could hope that we would have found artefacts from it. However, we cannot be certain of this and it is entirely possible that either completely modern Humans or our larger brained ancestors did have high technology and time and glaciers etc have destroyed nearly all traces. Often when an artefact is found there is no way of definitely determining its age and we guess its age from what we know.
I think that it is well within the bounds of possibility that there were earlier, completely unsuspected, civilizations. This forms part of the story in the fourth book of ‘The Bad Boy Quadrilogy’; ‘The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence’, and is also mentioned in the novella ‘War and Space’
Growing Wheat in the Arctic
In the second book of the Quadrilogy, a family starts to grow Wheat on the Arctic Tundra. This might like fantasy; but it has actually been done for quite a long time. The only difference is that in the book the Wheat growing area was extended a bit further north than is currently done.
Language
The Bad Boy Quadrilogy, like most of my books is written mainly in Australian English. This is almost identical to UK English although there are some insignificant differences. I think that Americans and people who speak any of the other minor variations of English will have no trouble understanding my writing. Is a few cases in the books where an American is speaking, I use US English. I do not attempt to write in dialects because this can get confusing.
One minor point should be mentioned; In Australian and UK English, Apes and Monkeys are separate groups while in the United States the two words are often used synonymously. Apes and Monkeys both play a part in the books, so here is a brief account of some of the differences between them.
Apes and Monkeys
The most obvious difference is in the tail. Most animals have tails. Some animals that do not have tails are Guineapigs, Manx Cats, Apes and Humans. So Monkeys have tails, and Apes do not. This is generally true, but the 'Barbary Ape' that lives in Algeria, Morocco and Gibraltar is really a nearly tailless Monkey. Actually they have a very short tail although this does not show up in most pictures.
The 'Barbary Ape' would be more correctly called the 'Barbary Macaque'. A Macaque is a type of monkey. This is the only primate other than Humans that roams free in Europe.
Intelligence
Apes are more intelligent than Monkeys. In particular, Apes can recognise their own reflection as being themselves. Monkeys cannot. Apes of at least four species (Orang-utans, Bonobos, Chimpanzees and Gorillas) have been taught to communicate using specially designed keyboards.
Apes generally have bigger brains than Monkeys.
Shoulders
Apes have a similar arrangement of shoulder joint to Humans. Monkeys have a different arrangement. The arm of Apes and Humans is arranged to hang from tree branches and swing from them. Monkeys are also very good at going through trees, but they climb differently. South American monkeys often have prehensile tails that they can swing from.
Genetics
Genetically, Apes are much closer to Humans than are Monkeys. Apes also appear to be genetically closer to Humans than they are to Monkeys.
Size
In most cases, Apes are bigger than Monkeys, but this is not a great way to tell them apart. The smallest Apes are the smallest Gibbons which are smaller than the biggest monkeys.
Science and Religion
The Bad Boy Quadrilogy is not a spiritual book in anyway and there are no supernatural happenings. There are things that happen that some people might interpret in a spiritual way. Despite the fact that several of the important characters are religious, they do not choose the supernatural interpretation of the odd things that happen; not even the strange feeling that several people sometimes have that Andy’s deceased son is present. Andy often feels comforted by the strange feelings but attributes them to his own subconscious rather than to any supernatural cause.
The religious characters in the story do not see any conflict between their religion and science. This is in accord with the churches that most Christians belong to. Andy and his large family are at least nominally Catholics although Andy himself has radically modified his own religion.
Historically, the Catholic Church has not always accepted science and has even tried to suppress theories that appear to conflict with the church’s doctrine. However, in recent years the Catholic Church has come to accept that the study of God’s creations is not denying the existence of God. Many other Christian denominations also accept this.
The Big Bang?
It is a widely accepted scientific theory that our universe came into being billions of years ago with an explosion from a point. There is considerable evidence for this although it is not accepted by all scientists. The Bad Boy Quadrilogy does not depend on the correctness or otherwise of this theory. Naturally more things are discovered and their effects on this theory are debated.
The steady state theory is much less popular now than it used to be, but not all scientists have totally abandoned some variation of this theory.